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Publication Research 339: High-resolution climate projections for Ireland – A multi-model ensemble approach(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2020) Nolan, Paul; Flanagan, Jason; EPA; Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment, IrelandThe method of regional climate modelling was employed to assess the impacts of a warming climate on the 21st-century climate of Ireland. The regional climate model (RCM) simulations were run at high spatial resolution (3.8 and 4 km), the first systematic study of its kind at this scale, thus allowing a better evaluation of the local effects of climate change. To address the issue of uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble approach was employed. Through the ensemble approach, the uncertainty in the projections can be partly quantified, thus providing a measure of confidence in the projections. Simulations were run for the reference period 1981 2000 and the future period 2041 2060. Differences between the two periods provide a measure of climate change. The Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling (COSMO-CLM) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) RCMs were used to downscale the following Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) datasets: CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH (four ensemble members), HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR. To account for the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, the future climate was simulated under both the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 scenarios.Publication EC-Earth global climate simulations: Ireland’s contributions to CMIP6(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2020) Nolan, Paul; McKinstry, Alastair; EPAThe global climate simulations described in this report constitute Ireland s contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) (phase 6) (CMIP6) and will be included for assessment in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)Publication Ensemble of regional climate model projections for Ireland(Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2015) Nolan, Paul; Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), IrelandThis report provides an analysis of the impacts of global climate change on the mid-21st-century climate of Ireland. The projections are based on the output of an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs).Publication High-resolution gridded datasets of hydro-climate indices for Ireland(Environmental Protection Agency, 2019-01) Werner, Christopher; Nolan, Paul; Naughton, Owen; EPA; Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment; Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Ireland; Geological Survey of IrelandThis report describes the application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations to develop high-quality, long-term, gridded climate datasets of hydro-climate variables for Ireland, covering the period 1981 2016. There is constant demand for such datasets from industry, research and governmental agencies for use in fields such as agriculture, water resource estimation and management, hydrology and hydrogeology, public health, energy and planning and studies on observed climate change trends and vulnerability. Variables such as evapotranspiration and soil moisture conditions are crucial factors in estimating water sustainability, understanding groundwater recharge, agronomic management and the management of flood and drought risk. However, with the exception of temperature and precipitation, spatially and temporally homogeneous, multi-decadal, gridded observational climate datasets are not readily available for hydro-climatic research applications in Ireland.