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A climate aware, mechanics consistent framework for predicting leading edge erosion in wind turbine blades

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Abstract
This thesis investigates leading edge erosion in wind turbine blades and develops a framework linking environmental conditions, material behaviour, and coating durability. The study combines meteorological analysis, numerical modelling, and analytical formulation to predict how erosion evolves under current and future climate conditions in Ireland. The research begins by integrating finite element modelling with meteorological data from multiple Irish sites to generate an erosion index for comparing regional erosion potential. The results reveal clear spatial variability, showing higher predicted damage than inland regions due to stronger rainfall intensity and droplet impact speeds. The second stage examines the influence of climate change using projected rainfall characteristics from global and regional models. The analysis indicates that future scenarios generally increase erosion severity, driven mainly by changes in rainfall intensity rather than total precipitation, highlighting the importance of short-duration high-intensity events. A semi-analytical model is then developed to describe the transient elastodynamic response of layered coatings under axisymmetric droplet impact. The model captures stress-wave propagation in multilayer systems and shows that surface-guided motion dominates the short-time response, helping explain why erosion damage initiates near the coating surface. Finally, finite element simulations assess the performance of different adhesive systems in blade structures. The results demonstrate that adhesives with higher energy absorption capacity reduce interfacial stresses and delay debonding, improving coating durability under repeated impacts. Together, these findings provide a unified framework linking environmental exposure, wave-driven mechanical response, and material behaviour, offering guidance for designing erosion-resistant coatings and adhesive systems suited to Ireland’s evolving climatic conditions.
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Publisher
University of Galway
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Rights
CC BY-NC-ND